The country's population in 2018 officially reached 4,699,755, jumping by 457,707 since the previous census in 2013 - the largest growth by number since 1961, Stats NZ announced on Monday. 1960-2019 Data | 2020-2022 Forecast | Historical | Chart. The chance may appear unlikely, but how much would New Zealand’s numbers need to change if the population were to reach 7 million by 2061? New Zealand has had occasional periods where the net migration gain exceeded 25,000 a year. It was 14 percent in 2013. New Zealand had 1,200 more departures than arrivals in 2012, although in most years we have more arrivals than departures. With 4.45 million people, population density averages about 17 people per square kilometre. Statista. The projections also indicate that population growth will slow as the population ages, and there is a 1 in 3 chance that deaths will outnumber births in 2061. That’s because we would need fertility and/or migration levels that are significantly higher than those we have experienced in recent decades. In 2013, the 65+ age group numbered some 600,000 people, while there were 900,000 children. Notes. The chance of New Zealand reaching 7 million people by 2061 is estimated at 1 in 25. Another way we could reach 7 million by 2061 is if women averaged 2.1 births each and net migration averaged 20,000 a year. From the dataset Estimates and Projections: Historical population estimates tables 2019, this data was extracted: This data forms the table Population - Estimated population by calendar year 1926–2019. New Zealand’s total fertility rate has occasionally reached this height over the last few decades; the years 2007 to 2011 had rates at or above this level. Publish your articles and forecasts in our website. Population estimates show the New Zealand population was around 4.45 million at the start of 2013. The median assumption of 1.9 births per woman allows for some further decline in average completed family size, reflecting longer historical trends. New Zealand would certainly be a more crowded place with 7 million people. This is a growth by 107.3 percent in 59 years.The highest increase in New Zealand was recorded in 1991 with 4.96%. Other people wonder about the social and environmental downsides of a much larger population. Regional differences in New Zealand in 2012. The projections also indicate that by the late 2020s, the 65+ age group will outnumber those in the 0–14 age group. Annual population growth rate in New Zealand 1926–2019, % change. Estimated de facto population: De facto population estimates include all people present in New Zealand and counted by the census (census night population count). World Bank. The number of people in this age group will have grown from 600,000 in 2013, to 1.5 million in 2061. At URL provided, select and download 'Historical population estimates – tables' from the right-hand side of the page. The total population in New Zealand was estimated at 5.0 million people in 2019, according to the latest census figures. However, our migration levels have varied widely, with several periods of net migration loss. The median projection (there is an estimated 50 percent chance the population could be lower, and a 50 percent chance it could be higher) is a population of 6 million in 2061. Estimates from 1991 onwards are not strictly comparable with estimates for earlier years, due to conceptual differences. Growth in Auckland accounted for over half of the total population growth in New Zealand in both the 1996 to 2013 and 2006 to 2013 periods (accounting for 55 and 52 percent of total growth respectively). July 1, 2020. Some people suggest a larger population of 7, 10, or 15 million would give economic benefits. The median assumption of 89.3 years in 2061 requires adding another eight years to life expectancy at birth over the next 50 years. Direct access to our calendar releases and historical data. There are many scenarios by which New Zealand’s population could reach 7 million. In order to reach a population of 6 million, we need: Those are an indication of the long-term trends, but how was New Zealand looking in 2012? The possibility of a population of 7 million or higher in 2061 is therefore theoretically achievable, but unlikely. The Trading Economics Application Programming Interface (API) provides direct access to our data. It allows API clients to download millions of rows of historical data, to query our real-time economic calendar, subscribe to updates and receive quotes for currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds. Download historical data for 20 million indicators using your browser. For 17 locations around New Zealand, we can see in the first column the growth in population between 1996 and 2020. Chart. This page provides - New Zealand Population - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. If we maintain our median fertility and mortality assumptions, we would need to average a net gain of 26,000 migrants a year during 2013–61. Is population growth of another 2.55 million feasible in less than 50 years? In 2012, New Zealand’s population was estimated to have passed 4,444,444. New Zealand’s total fertility rate was 2.05 births per woman in 2012. Businesses in Christchurch showed a remarkable resilience in the face of earthquakes, aftershocks, and the emergence of an altered city in 2012. a total fertility rate of 1.9 births per woman in the long term, life expectancy at birth increasing to 89.3 years in 2061. net migration gain of 12,000 a year in the long term. National population estimates give the best measure between census dates of the population that usually lives in an area, by age and sex, for the total New Zealand area. If we had 7 million people, that number rises to over 26 people per square kilometre. And because the age structure of New Zealand's population is changing, past growth rates are a poor indicator of future growth rates. Statistics NZ’s 2011-base national population projections indicate this level of growth is unlikely. Population growth in New Zealand From 1960 to 2019 the population of New Zealand increased from 2.37 million to 4.92 million people.
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